Have you CONSIDERED the DATA?

I’ve been on a rant apparently.. I have offended a few, my opinions do not align with the mainstream and therefore MUST be irrelevant!

Information these days seems to be a commodity that is traded and priced to the highest bidder… it is that bidder who then determines said information’s face value to the rest of the world. If you own the information, you control it’s value.. and I would imagine that you would want that information to WORK FOR YOU!

I have written recently (here) about the dangers of running blindly with the crowds, without having the knowledge and ability to see outside of the box and to analyze and interpret raw data by yourself.. The majority of the general public don’t have the time, smarts or energy to consider data and information, they don’t have the tact and skills to be skeptical of what is thrown before them constantly every second of every day! This phenomenon is what those who profit on the fools rely on, they operate on the fact that WHATEVER they decide to present to society and the public the MAJORITY of the public will accept it.. not only accept it in the sense like “OK, yea” the majority accept it as FACT!

This is where people fail in life without even knowing it.. this is where society and public lose and the SMART win.

The manipulation of data is an asset to those who manipulate it ten times more than being able to compile and share that data in itself. Data is the foundation of information, must I explain?? With raw data, we can have raw information.. we can leave it there and let the rest of the world decide for itself what that raw data and information means, but I’ve detailed in the past how unintelligent LARGE groups of people generally tend to be.. so in order for the data/information to MEAN SOMETHING it is refined into a product that is finally passed onto the general population. It is this step of refining the raw data into usable and easily understood information where the clowns of the world fool the rest!

The EXACT same set of raw data may be manipulated in any way, the same set of data may argue for both pro AND con at the same time.. how? It’s all in the presentation.. and of course the clever wording.

Example, the recent end of the boom of Canadian Real Estate has not been good news for many.. in fact the mere mention of a “downturn” or “correction” gets destroyed instantly by those who rely on an exploding housing market to make a living. Mortgage Brokers, Real Estate Brokers, Construction companies, Home Depot, Rona etc.. you get the picture. In fact roughly 25% of Canada’s economy and jobs are directly or indirectly connected to our housing market, if this market tanks so do hundreds of thousands of jobs. Predictably this scares the hell out of politicians, political parties, policy makers, trades people, your local used house sales men and mortgage brokers alike. The base of housing markets are people BUYING and BUYING and BUYING.. the more they BUY the HIGHER house prices go which in turn fuels more BUYING and of course jobs for everyone else involved with the construction, sales and financing of houses. So, 25% of Canada’s economy is fueled by BUYING and BUYING.. who cares that people can’t afford what they are buying today.. as long as they BUY the next fool will also BUY. This whole system is short sighted and a disaster waiting to implode on itself.

*Disclaimer* I do not have any negative stance or opinion against home ownership, my views are more geared towards unsustainable and illogical ownership

But the BUYING must go on, and people buy based on what everyone else is doing for the most part.. and everyone is buying based on the information being spoon fed to them. Who is feeding this information when it involves home buying? The Canadian Real Estate Association or CREA, they are solely responsible for feeding the majority of the information that (unintelligent) Canadians use to base their opinions.. all of this information is filtered out to the public via media outlets, newspapers, magazines, advertising and your local real estate office. They get all of this information from the raw data they collect. So what happens when the raw data you are collecting starts to go sour and turn against you? You manipulate the crap out of it to suit your needs.. remember how stupid the public is? They take ANYTHING for face value! So late last year when housing sales and housing prices started to plateau and drop in various markets across the country the CREA had to get clever, how can they run their circus on negative information?? Lets have a look at a few recent headlines!

Ottawa, ON, June 17, 2013 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales improved in May 2013, building on gains recorded in the previous two months.

“BC home sales rose 6.7 per cent from May, on a seasonally adjusted basis, with June being the fourth consecutive month of increasing sales activity,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Since February, home sales across the province have climbed by 23 per cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis,” added Muir.
So.. according to the national and provincial real estate associations, real estate is IMPROVING! We see key words like “Home Sales Climb” and “Increasing Sales Activity” these are $$$ signs in the eyes of those who present the data and information in this way, these sort of headlines to the general Average Joe mean subconsciously that the housing market is great! Remember that the general public doesn’t really THINK?
Other words stuck in between the manipulated information are things like “Seasonally Adjusted”.. what is that? Well that is a way of taking RAW DATA and “adjusting it” until it goes from negative sales to POSITIVE SALES.. the RAW DATA has been manipulated to work in the favor of the PRESENTER of the data..
What about those headlines though? Sales Increasing.. Sales Climbing.. In both of those cases the sales numbers were compared to the month preceding it.. fair enough.. a legitimate increase in sales.. however it does not reveal the fact that those months that the sales have been increasing from were some of the WORST months of sales in recent Canadian history in many markets.. and the fact of the matter is the sales are WELL BELOW the running 10 year averages. But that sort of data and information does not look good in a headline from an organization who relies on BUYING BUYING BUYING.
With the CREA and local real estate offices blasting excellent increases in sales etc.. all with the intent of re-igniting unsustainable buying and further levels of indebtedness then there’s only one direction the market could end up.. far far worse off than anyone could ever imagine.. Just ask Spain, Greece, Portugal or even our neighbors to the South.
This graphic here shows some promising gains and increasing on sales activity nation wide.. For the quick fool who looks at it and sees the increasing bar graph for Q2 2013 thing are looking nice, goes hand in hand with the Realtors recommendation to BUY NOW! The graph does not include the 10 year preceding.. a vital range of information and data to consider when purchasing Real Estate as an investment.
https://i2.wp.com/creastats.crea.ca/natl/images/natl_chartA01_hi-res_en.png
Interesting to see the raw data on 2013 mortgage applications.. they have literally evaporated into thin air, see here:
Monthly Volume Report for Mortgages
Applying for a mortgage is the first step in buying a house, these numbers show those who are initiating the first step are drying up rapidly.. this is all going hand in hand with the rapid increases in mortgage rates and bond market explosion. Read about that here:
I’ve used the Real Estate market here as probably an unfair example of data and information manipulation at its finest. The truth is data and information manipulation is EVERYWHERE.. The same way that mutual fund salesman sell us junk products based on “past results” which clearly disclaim that “past performance does not guarantee future results”
The point is, if you are a fool you will absorb anything and everything that is thrown your way without any second thought… and by doing just that you risk placing yourself on the “loser” side of that line that separates the winners from the rest.
Have you considered the data?
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4 thoughts on “Have you CONSIDERED the DATA?

  1. Pingback: These things never really end well… | My Mind

  2. Pingback: GUARANTEED RESULTS! 200% more in savings! | My Mind

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